Elder Advice

Thinking Inside the Box - 154

Elder Advice had plans. Plans over the next several weeks to offer his invariably sage advice on leadership. And children. And aging. All of which has been upended by the current cross-border chaos which has devoured all the oxygen in every Canadian room.

Most recently we were advised, courtesy of what was said to be a hot mic moment of the soon to be former Prime Minister, followed by a conveniently leaked statement, that Trump’s plans to annex Canada were “a real thing.” Of course the danger of relying on Justin’s judgement is ever-present, and there is reasonable suspicion that the entire episode is simply the latest Liberal spin in the party’s ongoing effort to maintain a death grip on federal power by employing any weapon of mass distraction that comes to hand. But, as it involves words that fell out of Trump’s mouth, one can never be sure of anything.

With respect to all the schemes Trump vomits daily, Elder Advice depends on the mathematical model he developed to determine whether they are serious. The first time Trump says anything, it is simply part of his narcissistic, attention-seeking character. The second time is to see if there is more than momentary interest in the idea among his credulous audience. Once he muses about anything three times however, he is committed to it. “Third time’s the harm”, if you will. In the case of Canada’s annexation, he has indeed proposed it three times.

Elder Advice urges Canadians to remain calm in the face of this provocation. A sensible initial strategy would be to seek disclosure of further information. We can reasonably expect the plan to be as well thought out as the recently announced Presidential proposition for Gaza. Step 1: Empty Canada of Canadians for an indeterminate period. Most are in Florida half the year anyway. Step 2: Rebuild the country with a string of casinos and luxury hotels from the St Lawrence to the Pacific. From the Riviera to the Sea, if Elder Advice can anticipate the marketing. Step 3: Offer “more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region … to wonderful people who have had a lot of bad luck…” . Young Canadians caught indefinitely in the housing crisis may be intrigued.

Elder Advice assumes most Canadians will find this latest and most capricious expression of Manifest Destiny to be unappealing, so the next step will be to remind Trump of the relevant provisions of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the founding agreement of NATO:

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area …

This article is complemented by Article 6, which stipulates: “For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: …on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America. (Emphasis added).

The minute U.S. forces trespass in the first tacky souvenir shop in Niagara Falls then, the United States will be obliged to assist in repelling itself.

Elder Advice suggests that anyone who scoffs at the notion - of Americans taking incompatible positions and battling with each other - in such circumstances has really not been paying attention during the the past decade. And who knows? There may even be a possibility that, in the confusion, we can sneak across the border and turn California into the 11th province. So Canadians can stop complaining every snowy February about whoever thought splitting the continent horizontally instead of vertically was a good idea.

Elder Advice? While booing the Star Spangled Banner at hockey venues provides a welcome opportunity to vent, the only practical result is reciprocal trade in insults the next time the Leafs play Boston. Similarly, observing that the Canadian Armed Forces we may soon need appear to be trying to make up for their tiny numbers by adding weight - 72% have been officially found to be overweight or obese - although perfectly true, does not help in our current predicament.

The fact is that the American mindset has been trending towards a more isolationist position for many years, independent of who occupies the White House. Economic globalization, the rise of competing authoritarian powers and a perception that American democracy is unwelcome elsewhere, have accelerated it. That the next four years will be especially rude and abusive for Canada because there is a malevolent presence in the Oval Office is indisputable, but we were headed this way regardless.

History and geography inevitably align Canada with our American neighbours and Europe. What we need to do today is what we should have done yesterday - show what our contribution will be to the required new relationship. That means not simply undertaking to immediately meet our 2% of GDP NATO commitment to security spending in this increasingly dangerous world, but making it clear to the U.S. and others specifically what we will use that money for. Elder Advice has thought, for decades, that the answer to that is three-fold. The first is to significantly increase the Royal Canadian Navy‘s ability to perform and patrol the Arctic. Our sovereignty there is already openly and increasingly challenged by Russian and Chinese activities. The second, which is wholly in keeping with both our military history and our peace-keeping aspirations, is to become NATO’s air transport arm, capable of moving not only equipment and troops in times of conflict, but humanitarian supplies and refugees in the times in between. The third is to treat Canada’s land, sea and air border security as a priority. This all means more forces personnel, more surface ships, more aircraft like the Airbus A-400M or the Boeing C-17 Globemaster, and the termination, with extreme prejudice, of Canada’s incoherent defense procurement system.

And while we are at it, we should of course dismantle inter-provincial trade barriers and impediments to extraction of critical minerals and extend pipelines through Eastern Canada to the tidewater. We should have done those things yesterday, too.

That deafening sound you hear is federal government cabinet ministers and Liberal candidates falling all over themselves this past week to belatedly acknowledge the problems and pretend they are not the very same people who have spent the past decade either denying their existence or actively contributing to them.

As for the pithy response Canadians need now to the presidential threat to make Canada the 51st state, Elder Advice suggests: “Thanks, but no thanks. We already have a king.”