Elder Advice

Thinking Inside the Box - 158

Elder Advice has named April 2, 2025, and every day after it, as “Libation Day”, given the amount of drinking necessary to dull the effects of the on again, off again, on again, off again global tariff and trade havoc wrought by the barmecide who is the president of the United States.

Knowing there has to be a rational explanation for the actions of the Trump administration, Elder Advice reached out to an expert, a former client who, as a U.S. felon with multiple convictions for fraud and no knowledge of economics, has a deep understanding of the motivations and actions of Donald Trump.

“The goal is to bring back critical manufacturing to America - things like outdoor pickleballs and butt plugs with Bluetooth connectors.” he told Elder Advice this past week. After all, the golden America of the future is only possible with an inadequately educated population, busy mining coal and working in mid-20th century industrial plants, making unnecessary merchandise Americans need. Only then can we have the long term certainty of a modern, credulous populace that is accepting of the President’s constant reminders that: “I know what the hell I am doing.”

“If achieving that goal requires us to alienate every international friend and ally America has gained in the last century, to demolish the world trade system that America created and has massively profited from both economically and politically, and to flagrantly violate of every multilateral and bilateral trade agreement America is a party to, surely that is a small price to pay. Making America Grate Again.”

“As for what a number of misinformed people have criticized as inconsistency in the statements and actions of the Trump administration on this issue, just because every credible economist in the world has stated bluntly that tariffs are an objectively bad, destructive policy, whether the goal is to raise money or onshore manufacturing jobs or renegotiate bilateral trade arrangements - all, some or none of which have been provided as explanations by President Trump for imposing them - that is no reason not to proceed. After all, the President’s plan is spectacularly novel - all those same economists admit there has been no economic modeling for it. And the suggestion that the reason is because none of them ever thought anyone would do something so spectacularly stupid, is just the sort of response we have all come to expect from experts. Look. It’s called ‘Liberation Day’ for a reason. Finally, Americans have a government that gets things done, free of the annoying impediment of evidence. And the results so far reveal an unexpected bonus - Americans are also being liberated from their retirement savings. And from the unpleasant prospect of indolence in their old age, when we all know that what seniors really need is to focus on something they constantly neglect - their resumes.”

“Honestly, I don’t know why the tariff strategy is so difficult for everyone with any common sense to grasp. Unlike the straws the President’s cabinet members and press secretary have had no problem clutching at as they have patiently explained how the strategy of the last two weeks is clearly set out in The Art of the Deal.”

“And nothing should be made of the fact that Russia is not the subject of any of the tariff measures. There is no pee tape.”

“Anyway, the brilliance of the tariff strategy is nowhere more evident than in the treatment of the Heard and Marshall Islands. There has been a lot of whining about putting a 10% tariff on all the non-existent goods which the inhabitants of those uninhabited islands have not been selling to the United States over many years. While that may seem like irrefutable evidence that everyone involved in the development and implementation of this economic policy haven’t the faintest notion of what they are doing, I know I speak for every single one of those people when I say that kind of cynicism is unwelcome. And misplaced. First of all, those islands are real places. It's not like we imposed tariffs on Rohan and the Shire, for goodness sake. So let's get some perspective here. Second, the key to understanding the 4D chess being played by the President is understanding shit.”

“Penguin shit, or ‘guano’, is the white excrement produced by 18 species of penguin and is valued as fertilizer because it is very high in nitrogen. The amount of guano in the Heard and Marshall Islands is significant and, because the penguins there eat so much fish, they shit up to 145 times a day! Which makes guano a renewable resource, available just 7 days by boat and only 4000 km from Australia. Any day now, the President will announce the successful negotiation of a new trading arrangement with those penguins which will guarantee Americans a continuous supply of guano. And avoid the need to annex Canada to onshore its potash deposits. It’s genius.”

Elder Advice? Taking a hard line on trade with China and uncoupling the U.S. economy from it is a goal that makes sense. After all, since Xi took control in 2012, China has doubled down on its economic policies of market access barriers for non-Chinese companies, flagrant industrial espionage and theft of intellectual property, massive subsidies, forced labour, enforced technology transfers and endless mischief-making in the negotiation of multilateral trade agreements. The way to accomplish that goal - obvious even to a grade schooler - is to isolate China, not the United States. World Bank data shows the Chinese market represents less than 15% of global consumption while Canada, the EU, UK, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. combined, represent around 65%. The colossal power of that economic block, and the leverage it could have provided to rein China in, is unprecedented. Trade arrangements that would reduce trade barriers with those trustworthy nations relative to China was the right strategy. Instead, America can now look to spending decades trying to restore the trust of its former friends and allies, that it has destroyed in days.

There is no need to look to the Heard and Marshall Islands. All the shit necessary to satisfy the needs of the United States fertilizer industry was onshored January 20, 2025.